A spike in consumer price inflation, confirmed by the ABS today, might combine with labour shortages to put pressure on wage rises, which remain near historic lows.
The CPSU has stepped up its criticism of the Morrison Government's public sector wages policy, saying it demands that workers sign up to "unknown" pay rises beyond the first year of new enterprise deals.
The RBA's board has rejected suggestions that recent wage pressures flowing from the unexpectedly rapid economic recovery, sub-5% unemployment and closed borders is leading to more generalised pay rises in the short term, while the bank's intelligence-gathering indicates employers are not planning catch-up increases for workers subjected to wage freezes.
After more than a decade of sub-4% growth in pay, Treasury has projected in its Intergenerational Report, released today, that it will return to that level in 2028 as productivity resumes its long-term growth path of 1.5%.
Bargained wage rises in the private sector show little sign of pushing towards the "materially higher" benchmark set by the RBA, growing at 2.6% for the second quarter in a row, while public sector bargaining collapsed.
The Berejiklian Coalition Government will relax its COVID-19 public sector wage freeze from July 1, moving back to the former 2.5%-a-year cap, and introduce paid leave for workers who suffer a stillbirth or miscarriage.
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe has today added a new reason to his long list of why employers are not lifting wages - the "laser-like focus on costs" that has become the "predominant mindset" of many businesses.